Is it China? Is it the US? Or is it just a question of buying baked beans and sitting this out in a bunker with solar panels?
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Hedging is often and widely being utilized in international relations, The United States is now inserted in a challenging place where international security, pressing for defense spending while attempting to remain resilient with a sustainable presence was designed to deter instead it’s become a call for assistance from other countries, working to bring oil into the USA through the straits we are watching the call to action, freedom and a uprising that may last longer than expected the strategies will prevail eventually. God Bless the USA!
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Can you rephrase this in a way that I can understand without contorting my brain?
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The only hedge that really exists: owning the property you occupy, having the means to defend it, and having a local network you can support, and be supported by, practically.
“Long periods of peace and quiet favor certain optical illusions. Among them is the assumption that the invulnerability of the home is founded upon the constitution and safeguarded by it. In reality, it rests upon the father of the family who, accompanied by his sons, appears with the ax on the threshold of his dwelling.”
- Ernst Junger
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Hedging of war challenges are appliable to Geopolitical Risk, the USA can face the following Asset performance can be hindered like gold may not perform as we had been seeing growing upward, volatility will occur uncertainty, predictability has lessened, economic cost can occur, America companies in the war country will have a strained while conducting business for actions taken by the USA. Have a great week!
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At the very least, you appear optimistic
Hedging is for the rich and powerful, not for everyone else, the only hedge that seems to work is have “two” bases in different locations, when one becomes unreliable just move to the other or better live between the two.
We’ve been in the financial markets for forever, just received updates to the institutional terminal to HFT trade sub milliseconds charts (FIX protocol which fintech didn’t really appreciate dealing with) as we already know what’s coming down the pipe, the problem is this.
If you take an event, say pandemic, just add 3-5yrs and that’s when you will see the quantifiable effects, 7-10yrs and there is almost certainly a demand destruction scenario, look at 2000 and the 2008 crisis, it’s all the same.
Today you’re seeing the first major effects and in a few years expect massive repercussions from 2020, today with 20% of the oil being choked we’ve run all the analysis and should see $150 in a few weeks up to $200, then demand destruction by June if everything stays status quo, it’s in the institutional research we output for prop and family office, but.
You won’t see the true real effect until 6-9mths (oil has a different dynamic to pandemics and conflicts), so expect something big towards the end of this year, it’s already baked in just now depends how material.
So the question, how do you hedge, here’s a little secret you can’t, today everything is too complex and too interconnected, all you can do is spread your resources out, for example if you have 100k just add 2k/mth to your living for 50mths, don’t buy big ticket items, save your 2k/mth and buy it in 1yr.
Just standard old fashioned wealth management that’s been lost in society today that anyone of any means can do, that’s how you hedge, it’s not elegant but it is effective.
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